A 4-year research project (May 2008- May 2012), funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council's (EPSRC) Sustainable Urban Environments 2 (SUE2) programme. The project consortium is led by the University of Birmingham and includes Lancaster University, the University of Exeter, Birmingham City University and Coventry University.
The aim of the Urban Futures project is to use future scenarios to measure the resilience of today’s urban regeneration solutions in terms of sustainability. Case studies in three UK cities (as well as in international cities) are being used to better understand whether solutions put in place now to problems will yield a positive, rather than negative, future legacy. The team from ImaginationLancaster is focussing on density and decision-making in the urban design and development process.
This project follows on from a previous EPSRC funded project Vivacity2020
Over 80% of the UK population lives in urban environments and this figure is increasing. This trend means making cities more sustainable is a top priority - for national Government, for city councils and for the people who live, work and visit urban areas.
The last 10 years has seen a concerted effort within the UK to develop, apply and assess sustainability solutions for the present and near future. There now exists the need to test solutions against alternative future scenarios. The team's research addresses the challenge of developing future scenarios for the year 2050 that will provide insights into the potential impacts of today's urban design decisions. If the outcomes from a proposed solution are similar, regardless of the future against which it is tested, and they deliver a positive legacy, then they can be adopted with confidence. Where there are very different outcomes depending on the future, the solutions can be modified to create an optimum outcome regardless of the future, or at the very least planning can be based on knowledge of the likely impacts if the future develops in different ways.
The team behind the project comes from a wide range of disciplines - social science, engineering, geography, computing, design, chemistry, business management, environmental science and urban studies.
The Urban Futures Project timeline has been divided into four phases:
Scenario Development - Phase 1
(0-6 months – completed October 2008)
The first six months of the project were dedicated to developing the future scenarios and a set of indicators against which the project’s eight research areas can be tested. Based on an extensive literature review, the team has decided to move ahead with four future scenarios:
Policy Reform: strong government action achieves social equity and environmental protection.
Market Forces: competitive, open and integrated global markets drive world development.
Fortress World: in protected enclaves elites safeguard their privilege by controlling an impoverished majority and managing critical natural resources.
New Sustainability Paradigm: a more humane and equitable global civilization.
A paper is in progress resulting from the project’s first 6 months’ work. This paper provides a review of the last 10 years’ scenarios work as applied to exploring urban futures.
Urban Forms Development - Phase 2
(7-18 months - underway since November 2008)
This phase requires the establishment of the very different urban characteristics that might derive from the four scenarios, with input from the complete range of discipline backgrounds encompassed within the project. The team is working closely together to produce an Urban Futures Toolkit, which includes a mix of Contextual Indicators and Sustainability Indicators which are relevant now and in the future. To test the urban characteristics, rigorous questions for each scenario will need to be framed by eachResearch Area and a pilot case study will take place in Birmingham Eastside, applying and testing the Toolkit. Optimised solutions will be recommended for each scenario. Phase 2 will see some of the initial work on developing answers to these questions, and the responses will help to shape the specifications of urban characteristics. A jointly-authored methodological paper will result from this phase of work.
Research Area-Specific Investigations - Phase 3
(19-42 months - due to begin November 2009)
This phase will predominantly consist of Research Area-specific investigations, with assessments of the four future scenario concepts deriving from Phase 2. Recommendations will be developed as to how the sustainability of the urban forms may be increased. Along with Birmingham Eastside, Lancaster and Worcester will be used as case study sites to develop and test sustainability ideas and the Urban Futures Toolkit. The application of the Urban Futures Toolkit across the four future scenarios will enable testing and refinement of the toolkit, along with derivation of internally consistent answers. The case study sites will be envisioned in each of the four different future scenarios, allowing for 'optimisation' of today's solutions in order that they remain relevant, no matter how the future develops. Eight papers will be produced in this phase of the project, each focussing upon a specific Research Area.
Scenario Testing and Development of Guidelines - Phase 4
The final phase of the project will test the dimensions of the future scenarios vis a vis their design, implementation and performance and the scenarios will be refined accordingly. Guidelines will be developed that aim to enhance the sustainability of today’s urban regeneration decisions.
Urban Futures builds directly upon research conducted by the team through previous projects, namely: Birmingham Eastside, VivaCity2020 and Water Cycle Management for New Developments (WaND), along with research into the use of trees to diminish the effects of atmospheric pollution at the Lancaster Environment Centre (LEC).
The first six months of the project were dedicated to developing the future scenarios and a set of indicators against which eight previously identified, key sustainability areas can be tested. Thereafter the very different urban characteristics that might derive from these scenarios are to be established, with the input from the complete range of discipline backgrounds encompassed within the project.
Work then focuses upon conducting detailed research into the eight sustainability topic areas with the purpose of developing a strong evidence base against which to test the urban forms deriving from the future scenarios.
Case Studies and Testing
Birmingham Eastside, Lancaster with Morecambe and Worcester are being used as case study sites to develop and test sustainability ideas. The team is also running small-scale, topic-specific research in India, Brazil and Singapore.
The final element of the programme is testing dimensions of the future scenarios vis a vistheir design, implementation and performance and refining the scenarios accordingly.